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Prediction for CME (2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-11-29T13:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16156/-1
CME Note: An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-02T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-11-29Y16:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1400 km/s
Longitude (deg): 70E
Latitude (deg): 13S
Half-angular width (deg): 55 

Notes: [Edited arrival time] The CME was from near the southeast horizon from M4 flare, possibly a larger flare in reality due to its partially hidden location. A fast CME was clearly visible on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A COR2. The bulk of the CME will miss Earth. However, an EIT shock wave was seen in AIA 193 imagery passing through the corona on the Earth-facing disc. A shock front also appeared on SOHO C3, suggesting Earth will receive a peripheral shock front from the CME, but not the CME Sheath or magnetic cloud. Quite low confidence in timing or strength.
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC team.

Lead Time: 37.00 hour(s)
Difference: -3.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2020-11-30T08:00Z

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